Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles
نویسنده
چکیده
An understanding of the Ohl's Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun's electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun's Equator during a solar cycle.
منابع مشابه
The Solar Cycle
The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fl...
متن کاملAutomated Prediction of Solar Flares Using Neural Networks and Sunspots Associations
An automated neural network-based system for predicting solar flares from their associated sunspots and simulated solar cycle is introduced. A sunspot is the cooler region of the Sun's photosphere which, thus, appears dark on the Sun's disc, and a solar flare is sudden, short lived, burst of energy on the Sun's surface, lasting from minutes to hours. The system explores the publicly available s...
متن کاملOn the Prediction of Solar Activity Using Diierent Neural Network Models
Accurate prediction of ionospheric parameters is crucial for telecom-munication companies. These parameters strongly rely on solar activity. In this paper, we analyze the use of neural networks for sunspots time series prediction. Three types of models are tested and experimental results are reported for a particular sunspots time series: the IR5 index.
متن کاملDiscovery of the 5.7-Year Douglass Cycle: A Pioneer’s Quest for Solar Cycles in Tree-Ring Records
The astronomer A.E. Douglass is generally recognized as the founding father of dendrochronology. He studied tree rings in the search for evidence that solar variation (as seen in sunspots) is reflected in climate variation. He was convinced that his quest was successful. Analysis of some of his early data using Fourier decomposition and comparison of tree-ring periodograms with those based on k...
متن کاملProperties of sunspots in cycle 23 I . Dependence of brightness on sunspot size and cycle phase
Aims. In this paper we investigate the dependence of umbral core brightness, as well as the mean umbral and penumbral brightness on the phase of the solar cycle and on the size of the sunspot. Methods. Albregtsen & Maltby (1978) reported an increase in umbral core brightness from the early to the late phase of solar cycle from the analysis of 13 sunspots which cover solar cycles 20 and 21. Here...
متن کامل